As of February 2022, China's total social logistics amount was 51.8 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2%. The growth rate of total social logistics has continued to rebound since the fourth quarter of last year, and is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic level in 2019, indicating that overall logistics demand is still in a recovery phase, and logistics operations have started smoothly.
From a structural perspective, the policy effects of expanding domestic demand to promote consumption continue to be evident internally, and industrial and consumer logistics demand maintains a relatively fast growth rate. Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal levels, and import logistics demand continues to decline.
Industrial logistics demand is growing rapidly, and new momentum is continuing to strengthen.
After the Spring Festival holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and industrial logistics demand maintained a relatively fast growth rate. From January to February, the total amount of industrial logistics for goods increased by 7.5% year-on-year, which was 1.4 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate from 2020-2021.
From a structural perspective, new momentum continues to drive demand for industrial logistics. The high-tech manufacturing industry and the equipment manufacturing industry continue to show a relatively fast growth trend. From January to February, the logistics total amount for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year, which was 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points faster than the same period in December of the previous year.
In terms of industries, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrument and meter manufacturing have all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate has increased compared to the previous period. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, which was 4.4 percentage points faster than December of the previous year. In particular, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing its high-speed growth on the basis of a doubling of production in the previous year.
The recovery of logistics demand for consumer goods is accelerating, and new business models continue to drive growth.
In January and February, driven by online promotions such as the "Online New Year Shopping Festival", logistics demand for consumer goods manufacturing accelerated its recovery, and the demand for logistics in sales, such as e-commerce and online shopping, remained high. From the production side, consumer goods manufacturing accelerated its recovery, with logistics demand increasing by 9.7% year-on-year in January and February, which was 5.2 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate from 2020-2021.
From the sales side, the role of new business models in driving growth is still evident. From January to February, the total amount of logistics for goods for units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year. The e-commerce logistics index shows that the year-on-year growth rate of e-commerce logistics business volume in the first two months exceeded 25%, and the growth rate of rural business volume was also close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
The increment of import prices is decreasing, and the demand for logistics continues to decline.
According to the data, since the fourth quarter of last year, the continuous rise in international commodity prices has had a certain impact on China's related imports. From January to February of this year, the volume of imported logistics decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, continuing its decline for five consecutive months. However, it should also be noted that the month-on-month decrease in the volume of imported logistics has narrowed since the beginning of this year. With the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the scale of imports is expected to expand.
In terms of import structure, the import volumes of crude oil, coal and lignite, and steel have all declined due to factors such as significant price increases in commodities, with cumulative year-on-year declines of 4.9%, 14.0%, and 7.9%, respectively. Among agricultural products, the demand for imported meat continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 33%.
The logistics market is expanding in scale, and the industry is accelerating its consolidation.
The logistics market in China has continued to expand in size, and industry consolidation has accelerated. Since 2021, the logistics industry's market scale has continued to expand, and the total revenue growth rate has remained relatively high. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, which was faster than the level in 2019 before the pandemic.
With the development of new drivers, the demand structure of logistics is constantly changing, and higher requirements are put forward for logistics services. In particular, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry have accelerated significantly since the outbreak of the pandemic, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The proportion of the top 50 logistics enterprises in China's logistics industry has increased to a level in recent years, and the overall industry concentration has steadily increased. In specific areas such as express delivery and transportation, leading enterprises have further pushed up industry concentration through mergers and reorganizations. According to the data of the Postal Bureau, the CR8 index of brand concentration of express delivery and parcel services in January and February was 85.3, which was significantly higher than the annual and same period levels of 2021.
Transportation business has grown rapidly, and logistics enterprises are operating more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the total amount of goods transported by the whole society in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with the road freight volume increasing by 21.1%. In terms of enterprise business, the total business volume index in February did not decrease but rose, and the index rose by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by factors such as resuming work and production, the physical volume and business volume of the logistics industry have maintained a good momentum of growth, while the logistics industry has maintained a relatively efficient operating efficiency. The turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry's prosperity index in February both rose by 0.1 percentage point month-on-month, and have remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises have taken the initiative to improve the efficiency of fund utilization and enhance the efficiency of logistics equipment operations, which has played a certain role in adjusting the supply and demand balance of personnel in the first two months of the year.
In summary, the macro economy has continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand has remained at a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry's prosperity index were 50.2% and 59.7%, respectively, which were higher than the previous month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been operating in the high prosperity zone for two consecutive months, indicating that logistics enterprises have a positive outlook for the development of the industry.
However, it should also be noted that since March, there has been increased instability and uncertainty, which has made it more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial and supply chains.
From an external perspective, the effects of the epidemic are still ongoing in some regions, and the development levels of different industries and regions are uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still ongoing, which may result in a lack of smooth cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, a shortage of transport capacity, rising transport prices, and an increase in supply chain disruptions and pressure to maintain stability and prices for key commodities. This needs to be tracked and analyzed closely.
From the perspective of market vitality, logistics companies' operating costs are trending upwards, and pressures on rising raw material and labor costs have increased. The foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further stabilized:
Firstly, the link between logistics service prices and costs is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil continues to rise, logistics service prices have not risen significantly. In the Logistics Industry Prosperity Index for February, the service price index fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the freight rates for road logistics and coastal bulk cargo fell compared to the previous period. This shows that under the current background of homogenized competition in freight services, the industry's bargaining power is weak, and there is some lag in the linkage between costs and logistics service prices.
Secondly, the industry's profitability is further under pressure. Key survey data shows that in January-February, the logistics business costs of key logistics companies increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the cost of each 100 yuan of operating revenue was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above a certain size. Among them, affected by factors such as rising prices of bulk commodities and structural labor shortages, fuel costs and labor costs both rose by more than two digits. In terms of profitability, the proportion of losses for key logistics companies in January-February increased by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to nearly 30%, indicating that the operating pressure on logistics companies has increased, leading to further compression of profit margins. The overall income profit margin is around 3%, which is a 0.2 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year. Among them, small and micro logistics companies were more severely affected, with a profit margin of less than 3%, which is lower than the same period last year, and there is a significant gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.